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National General Practice Study of Epilepsy:Recurrence After a First Seizure
Lancet 336:1271-1274, Hart,Y.M.,et al, 1990
See this aricle in Pubmed

Article Abstract
In the National General Practice Study of Epilepsy 564 patients classified as having definite seizures have been followed up for 2-4 years.67%(95% confidence interval 63-71%)had a recurrence within 12 months of the first seizure,and 78%(74-81%)had a recurrence within 36 months.Seizures associated with a neurological deficit presumed present at birth had a high rate of recurrence(100%by 12 months),whereas seizures that occurred within 3 months of an acute insult to the brain,such as head injury or stroke,or in the context of an acute precipitant such as alcohol,carried a much lower risk of recurrence(40%[29-51%]by 12 months).Other factors affecting the risk of recurrence were age-the highest risk being for patients under the age of 16(83%[77-89%]by 36 months)or over the age of 59 (83%[76-90%]by 36 months)and type of first seizure-the risk of recurrence being much higher for patients with simple partial or complex partial seizures(94%[90-99%]by 36 months)than for those with generalised tonic clonic seizures(72%[67-77%)by 36 months).
 
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prognosis
seizure
seizure,prognosis in adults
seizure,prognosis in childhood

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