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Three factors were associated with stroke or death:age of more than 65 years,diabetes,and hypertension.Based on regression coefficients,age of more than 65 years was assigned 3 points;diabetes,3 points;and hypertension,2 points.An initial prognostic system comprised risk groups 1 (0 points),2(1 to 5 points),and 3(6 to 8 points).Outcome rates in the three groups were 2%,31%and 54%(p<0.0001),respectively.In an independent test sample,the corresponding outcome rates for the initial system were 12%,21%and 31%(p,0.04).A final prognostic system,including two additional predictors(coronary heart disease[1 point]and the distinction between stroke and transient ischemic attack for the baseline event[2 points]), comprised risk groups 1(0 to 2 points),2(3 to 6 points)and 3(7 to 11 points).Corresponding outcome rates were 3%,27%and 48%(p<0.001)in the original cohort and 10%,21%and 59%(p,0.001)in the test cohort.Conclusion: For selected patients with carotid transient ischemia or minor stroke,five clinical features can be combined to stratify effectively the risk for a subsequent stroke or death. |
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